Myth of Sports Betting: Pie in the Sky Win Rates

Pie in the Sky Win Rates As NFL gambling has exploded, so has the correct business. A tout is somebody who gets paid to aid a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not. The very first means to … Myth of Sports Betting: Pie in the Sky Win Rates weiterlesen →

Pie in the Sky Win Rates

As NFL gambling has exploded, so has the correct business. A tout is somebody who gets paid to aid a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not.

The very first means to protect yourself from a person who is not is to rule out anybody who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just keep in mind this: Anyone who reasonably expected to win 80 of the next 100 bets could turn $1,000 into $15 billion by appropriate proportional betting–all in one season!

A realistic long-term win percent to get a skilled handicapper will be in the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service which has done better than about 60 percent above a variety of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are quite few.

Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple services within a single service. Touts create numerous services in order they can always truthfully claim to have won. For example, a tout may function an early-week newsletter providing choices on each game along with a weekend telephone service giving selections according to the“latest inside info.“ Afterward the tout will change sides on a game because of“new“ information. This way, the tout can constantly honestly promote his service, meaning one of his solutions, had the winner of the match.

Other sports services give out selections on 900 numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by providing only one choice and telling you to call back in ten minutes for one more pick–and yet another cost.

Other services advertise“lock games,“ significance matches that can’t lose. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Whoever has watched sports for about a month understands that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. In the NFL, a match will often be turned by a single play or penalty call. The best anybody can do in handicapping will come up with a negative which has a marginally better than 60% chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the game will lose–making any conversation of a lock complete crap.

A number of the more ridiculous tout advertisements are the ones which are printed a month or more ahead of time. These are usually found in NFL gambling programmes. The ads will assert that this service had winners in games which couldn’t have been played when the ads were written!

In summary, the sole touts you ought to consider using are people who talk about the long haul and realistic win percentages.